Is Huckabee crashing already?

The following is my opinion and observations.

A little over a week ago, Huckabee had a pretty substantial lead in the Iowa polls. His average was about +13.5.

As of today, Huckabee's average is now down to 8%.

In fact is the latest single poll conducted just yesterday by Insider Advantage, Romney was already back up by +3.

Just like in 2004- Huckabee seems to be following the same path as Howard Dean. From what I remember, Howard Dean peaked about 3-4 weeks before the Iowa caucus. About 2-3 weeks out, Dean's lead was down to single digits. By about 1 week out, Dean's lead was gone. By election day, Dean was way behind and fell to third in the polling. We all know what happened after that. Complete collapse.

To you Huckabee supporters, the signs are not good.

To you Romney supporters, this is good. Romney needs a good showing in Iowa, followed by a decent size victory in New Hampshire to launch him forward.

To you Thompson supporters, this is good. Thompson has dedicated himself to Iowa and will remain there for the most part until election day. This will drive his numbers up, possible to a second place showing. Thompson needs a decent showing in Iowa to continue.

To you Giuliani supporters, never fear. Giuliani never intended to win Iowa. Giuliani appears to plan on showing big on Feb 5th- when all the big guns are voting. Possible Florida is where he plans on really starting the steam roller before Feb 5th. However, it may all backfire. We will see.

To you McCain supporters, pray. No seriously, just pray. Unless something unexpected happens in the next few days, you might need a miracle. McCain does not appear to be showing any strong support in any state that I can see. I could be wrong. Pray that I am wrong.

To the Paul supporters, gosh, I love you guys. You are by far the most enthusiastic bunch out there right now. Who knows? Anything can happen in politics.

On this same note, the Democrat race in Iowa has also shifted. Clinton seems to have stopped the bleeding and as of today, Obama is back to only a +1 in the polls. That is within the margin of error.

I believe that the Clinton folks may have gotten the message that Hillary will still have to work to become the nominee. Nobody is going to hand her the nomination.

Edwards is doing even better in Iowa. However, a second place finish will not do, unless it is very close. Edwards needs to win Iowa- he seems to be trailing in the other states by a wide margin. He needs Iowa.