Thursday, December 20, 2007

The Huckabee collapse continues...

I know that one of the national poll triumphantly declared Mike Huckabee as polling ahead of Giuliani nationally yesterday.

All I can say is that the polls in Iowa are telling a different story.

The combined poll numbers by Real Clear Politics showed Huckabee with a +8 lead two days ago, which I highlighted in this post.

Yesterday, polling averages showed Huckabee down to a +5.5 point lead.

Today, Huckabee is down to a +3.8 average polling data lead.

Just last week, Huckabee had at least a +13 lead. Huckabee's numbers are going in the wrong direction.

Romney, McCain and Paul are moving up.

Here is a link to a chart where you can track the Iowa numbers more closely. The chart is clearly showing drop in support for Huckabee.

Yes, I am a numbers geek.

I have been fascinated with numbers for years. I think they tell a powerful story.

Still even with my fascination with numbers, polls never tell the entire story. Polling numbers can be wrong. Pollsters can be wrong. We should have learned that from the 2004 elections as the media declared John Kerry the victor.

Polls only show a trend, they cannot predict the outcome.

There is one pollster I trust above all others, that is Rasmussen. Their numbers have most closely matched the finally outcome in many tight races. In 2004, they final numbers were within .5% of the actual results, calling Bush the winner. No one else was anywhere near this close.

As of yesterday, Rasmussen only shows Huckabee with a +1 advantage.

You can track Rasmussen's daily presidential numbers here.

For those on the Democrats side, Rasmussen is reporting that Clinton has made a comeback in Iowa and across the nation. She now leads in Iowa by +4 and nationally by +18.

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