Sunday, March 09, 2008

Dems brokered convention: do the math

I know there are some Democrats out there still hoping against hope that a brokered convention will not take place.

They continue to prattle on about the HUGE lead Obama has in delegates.

The problem there is no huge lead.

It will take 2025 delegates for the Democrat nominee to win his party's nomination outright.

Including yesterday, Obama has 1588 and Clinton has 1465.

In order to win the nomination outright, even if Obama wins 100% of the delegates in the next 5 state or provinces, Obama will still NOT have won this thing outright.

From Real Clear Politics-


Pennsylvania04/22158 C

Guam05/034 C

North Carolina05/06115


Obama's total with 100% of these delegates would only be 1970 delegates, still 55 delegates short of winning this outright.

The chances of Obama winning each and every delegate in the next 5 states are astronomical.

With the exception of the Virgin Islands, where Obama picked up all three of their delegates, Obama has not completely won all of any single state's delegates to date. Clinton has picked up delegates in all of them.

So, we move on to the final six states or provinces still to vote:

West Virginia05/1328

Oregon05/2052 C

Kentucky05/2051 C

Puerto Rico06/0155


South Dakota06/0315 C

It is not until Oregon on May 20 is Obama able to win this outright, if he wins 100% of all the delegates between now and then.

The Democrats have actually shot themselves in the foot with this strategy. Since there are no "winner take all" states, this was bound to happen eventually. The "every vote counts" strategy they have been preaching since 2000 may actually cost them big time in 2008. (Obviously the Democrats new theme is that "Every vote counts" unless you live in Florida or Michigan)

All of this would have meant nothing if it were not for a handful of states. If Obama could have won New Hampshire, the second state to vote, this would have been over on January 8th. If Obama had won California, this would have been over on February 5th. If Obama has won Ohio, this would have been over on March 4th.

None of that happened. This will not be over until August 28th in Denver- the end of the Democrats convention.

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